Predictive Planning Institute
Prices and inputs · FRED T10YIE

10-Year Breakeven Inflation

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

2.20%
% · latest reading Nov 10, 2026
−13 bp
1 month
−7 bp
3 months
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Ratehigh 2.40% · Jun 1low 2.18% · Jun 24May 27Aug 18Nov 10
116 readings · May 27 to Nov 10 · %
What it is

The number, plainly.

The inflation rate the bond market is pricing over the next ten years, read from the gap between nominal and inflation-protected Treasuries.

What a Scan reads here

Higher, lower, and what each means.

Rising means investors are paying to protect against inflation; falling means they expect it to fade. It is a market price, not a survey.

A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.

What it tests

The line in your 2027 plan.

Tests: the long-run inflation assumption behind any contract, lease or pension that runs past 2030.

Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.

Reading history

The last 36 readings.

Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.

DateValueChange
Nov 10, 20262.20%−2 bp
Nov 9, 20262.22%−1 bp
Nov 6, 20262.23%−1 bp
Nov 5, 20262.24%−2 bp
Nov 4, 20262.26%−4 bp
Nov 3, 20262.30%+1 bp
Nov 2, 20262.29%−5 bp
Oct 30, 20262.34%−1 bp
Oct 29, 20262.35%−3 bp
Oct 28, 20262.38%+3 bp
Oct 27, 20262.35%+1 bp
Oct 26, 20262.34%Unchanged
Oct 23, 20262.34%+2 bp
Oct 22, 20262.32%−5 bp
Oct 21, 20262.37%+2 bp
Oct 20, 20262.35%Unchanged
Oct 19, 20262.35%Unchanged
Oct 16, 20262.35%+3 bp
Oct 15, 20262.32%−3 bp
Oct 14, 20262.35%+2 bp
Oct 13, 20262.33%Unchanged
Oct 9, 20262.33%−2 bp
Oct 8, 20262.35%−1 bp
Oct 7, 20262.36%Unchanged
Oct 6, 20262.36%Unchanged
Oct 5, 20262.36%Unchanged
Oct 2, 20262.36%Unchanged
Oct 1, 20262.36%Unchanged
Sep 30, 20262.36%+1 bp
Sep 29, 20262.35%+1 bp
Sep 28, 20262.34%Unchanged
Sep 25, 20262.34%+1 bp
Sep 24, 20262.33%−2 bp
Sep 23, 20262.35%+2 bp
Sep 22, 20262.33%−1 bp
Sep 21, 20262.34%—
Related signals

Also in Prices and inputs.

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FRED · CPIAUCSL · Oct 1, 2026
337.48
+0.4%
Core CPI
FRED · CPILFESL · Oct 1, 2026
339.90
+0.3%
Core PCE
FRED · PCEPILFE · Sep 1, 2026
130.90
+0.3%
Producer Prices
FRED · PPIACO · Sep 1, 2026
295.71
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Watch this signal

When 10-Year Breakeven Inflation moves, know what it tests.

The monthly Signal Layer covers every series in the library: what moved, which planning assumptions it tests, and what a continuous-planning team does about it. One email a month. Unsubscribe in one click.

Source

Where the number comes from.

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE. Refreshed daily; 116 readings on file from May 27, 2026 to Nov 10, 2026.

Cite this

Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: 10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE). predictiveplanning.com/signals/T10YIE. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value 2.20% as of Nov 10, 2026.