Core PCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index)
The number, plainly.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge: personal consumption prices excluding food and energy.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
This is the number the Fed's two-percent target is written against. Where it sits relative to target is the most direct read on the policy path.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: the rate path. If core PCE is not moving toward two percent, the cuts in the plan are an assumption, not a schedule.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | 130.90 | +0.3% |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 130.49 | +0.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 130.15 | +0.1% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 129.97 | +0.1% |
| May 1, 2026 | 129.80 | +0.3% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 129.40 | +0.3% |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 129.03 | +0.3% |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 128.70 | +0.3% |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 128.27 | +0.4% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 127.77 | +0.3% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 127.36 | +0.2% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 127.17 | +0.2% |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 126.94 | +0.2% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 126.65 | +0.2% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 126.36 | +0.2% |
| Jun 1, 2025 | 126.13 | +0.3% |
| May 1, 2025 | 125.82 | +0.2% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 125.52 | +0.3% |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 125.14 | +0.1% |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 125.00 | +0.3% |
| Jan 1, 2025 | 124.61 | +0.3% |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 124.20 | +0.2% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 123.99 | +0.1% |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 123.82 | +0.3% |
| Sep 1, 2024 | 123.46 | +0.3% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | 123.14 | +0.2% |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 122.87 | +0.2% |
| Jun 1, 2024 | 122.67 | +0.2% |
| May 1, 2024 | 122.41 | +0.1% |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 122.25 | +0.2% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 122.02 | +0.4% |
| Feb 1, 2024 | 121.57 | +0.3% |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 121.20 | +0.4% |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 120.69 | +0.1% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 120.53 | +0.2% |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 120.32 | — |
When Core PCE moves, know what it tests.
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Where the number comes from.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE. Refreshed daily; 120 readings on file from Oct 1, 2016 to Sep 1, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: Core PCE (PCEPILFE). predictiveplanning.com/signals/PCEPILFE. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value 130.90 as of Sep 1, 2026.