What the crowd is paying to be right about.
Chapter 3 of Predictive Planning makes the case that a prediction-market price is a checkable input to a scenario set: a number somebody put money behind, updated continuously, on exactly the questions a plan depends on. These are the live ones we track, last read Nov 12, 2026. The other half of the Scan, the hard data, is in the Signal Library.
Price is probability. Mostly.
Three things to hold in mind before you lift a number off this page into a planning meeting.
The price is the probability.A market trading at 30 cents on “yes” is saying there is roughly a 30 percent chance the thing happens. That is the whole trick: a crowd with money at stake, compressing everything it knows into one number, in public.
Thin markets are noisy markets. A question with a few thousand dollars traded moves on one opinionated bettor. Treat small platforms and quiet questions as a rough read, not a quote. The platform and the market link are on every row so you can check the depth yourself.
It is not a forecast, and neither are we.A 20 percent market that resolves “yes” was not wrong. The discipline uses these numbers the way it uses every signal: to test an assumption the plan is carrying, and to decide how much to stake on it being right.
What the crowd pays for the rate path.
The most planning-relevant question there is, priced continuously. Compare it to the rate assumption in the budget.
Oil, inflation, growth, tax.
The input-cost and demand questions. A price here is a crowd's read on a line in the plan.
A number, not a verdict.
Nothing here is advice, and nothing here is the Institute’s view. We do not trade these markets and we do not pick them for the answer we would like. They pass a keyword filter for planning relevance, markets that have resolved are dropped, and the rest are shown as the platforms report them.
The reason to look is the gap. When the plan assumes two rate cuts and the market is paying for none, that gap is a Story waiting to be written and a Stake waiting to be sized. The market did not settle the question. It told you which assumption to argue first.
Market-implied probabilities via public prediction markets (Kalshi · Polymarket · Manifold) · re-read every six hours · a market is listed only while it is live
Predictive Planning Institute, The Market Layer. predictiveplanning.com/markets. Market-implied probabilities via public prediction markets. Values as of the dates shown.
The markets and the data, read together, once a month.
What the crowd is pricing, what the hard data says, and where they disagree. One email a month. Unsubscribe in one click.