Long-form essays on the discipline.
Field notes from inside operating companies. Frameworks built to be used. The intellectual underpinnings of predictive planning as a leadership practice.
The prediction-markets boom is the public proof of predictive planning
Polymarket and Kalshi went from $30M to $3B in weekly trading volume in fourteen months. That number is not a curiosity. It is the market discovering, in public, that continuously priced foresight is more useful than the static kind.
Installing the Loop in 90 days
A practitioner-grade installation plan for the Predictive Planning Loop. Three phases, ninety days, one full revolution from raw signal to first stake decision. Built to be run inside an operating company without freezing the rest of the calendar.
When Good-to-Great companies broke
Circuit City. Fannie Mae. Wells Fargo. Three of the eleven companies Jim Collins canonized in 2001 are now cautionary tales. Read the failures backward and the same disciplinary gap shows up in each.
The Stake Sizing Matrix, explained
Most strategic commitments are sized by political gravity, not by the risk shape of the underlying scenario. The Stake Sizing Matrix is the convention that fixes that — a two-by-two that sets the magnitude of a commitment by reversibility and conviction.
Tacit knowledge and the limits of predictive analytics
Predictive software can price what is measurable. The hardest decisions inside an organization turn on what isn't. The discipline of predictive planning exists because of that gap — and the gap is not closing.