Long-form essays on the discipline.
Field notes from inside operating companies. Frameworks built to be used. The intellectual underpinnings of predictive planning as a leadership practice.
The Predictionist: a coined title for the practitioner of continuous foresight
Every discipline of consequence eventually earns its own title. Predictionist is the title for the operator whose work is continuous foresight — the practitioner of predictive planning. This is the definitional case for the name.
The rise of the Predictionist
A new title is appearing on org charts. Predictionist. Its rise is not branding — it is the labor-market consequence of three structural shifts arriving at once: AI-augmented foresight, continuously priced markets, and the failure of episodic strategy.
Who becomes a Predictionist: the six roles most likely to cross over
The first generation of Predictionists will be hired, not produced by a program. They will come from six adjacent roles, each already carrying part of the discipline. The case for each — and what each must learn to cross the threshold.
The Predictionist is the CEO's best new friend
The CEO has plenty of advisors. None of them is responsible for the future. The Predictionist closes the gap — a continuous-foresight partner at the leadership level, not on the org chart of any one function.
Game theory says China won't invade Taiwan. The markets say probably not. Now what?
Game theory tells you what should happen at the Taiwan Strait. Prediction markets tell you what the crowd thinks will happen. Neither tells you what to do. The discipline does.
The prediction-markets boom is the public proof of predictive planning
Polymarket and Kalshi went from $30M to $3B in weekly trading volume in fourteen months. That number is not a curiosity. It is the market discovering, in public, that continuously priced foresight is more useful than the static kind.
Installing the Loop in 90 days
A practitioner-grade installation plan for the Predictive Planning Loop. Three phases, ninety days, one full revolution from raw signal to first stake decision. Built to be run inside an operating company without freezing the rest of the calendar.
When Good-to-Great companies broke
Circuit City. Fannie Mae. Wells Fargo. Three of the eleven companies Jim Collins canonized in 2001 are now cautionary tales. Read the failures backward and the same disciplinary gap shows up in each.
The Stake Sizing Matrix, explained
Most strategic commitments are sized by political gravity, not by the risk shape of the underlying scenario. The Stake Sizing Matrix is the convention that fixes that — a two-by-two that sets the magnitude of a commitment by reversibility and conviction.
Tacit knowledge and the limits of predictive analytics
Predictive software can price what is measurable. The hardest decisions inside an organization turn on what isn't. The discipline of predictive planning exists because of that gap — and the gap is not closing.
