Predictive PlanningInstitute
A discipline for the AI-native era

The strategy that goes with the prediction-market era.

Predictive planning is the continuous discipline of converting weak signals into strategic decisions — using AI to decide faster than your operating environment changes.

The Loopdecide faster thanthe world changes— the asymmetry test —Phase 01SCANwhat's emerging?Phase 02STORYwhat could it mean?Phase 03STAKEwhat will we commit?Phase 04STEERwhat do we adjust?Per phase · owners, inputs, outputs, cadenceSCANPhase 01Input · Output► sources, signal queue◄ 5–15 prioritized signalsOwner · CadenceSignal Layer Owner · weeklySTORYPhase 02Input · Output► prioritized signals◄ 3–5 pressure-tested scenariosOwner · CadenceOperator (CSO) · biweeklySTAKEPhase 03Input · Output► scenarios + consequence map◄ sized, named, reversibility-taggedOwner · CadenceCFO + COO (paired) · monthlySTEERPhase 04Input · Output► reality vs. scenario set◄ convergence read · stake movesOwner · CadenceCEO sponsor · monthly + quarterlyThe Five Principles· Continuous > episodic· Decisions, not decks· Range, not point· Judgment > machine· Reversibility is currency

The Loop

The Discipline

A four-phase loop. Continuous. Never closed.

The Predictive Planning Loop is the operating cadence of the discipline. Five principles anchor every phase.

ScanWhat's emerging? Build a live signal layer from inside and outside the organization.

StoryWhat could it mean? Translate signals into a small set of pressure-tested scenarios.

StakeWhat will we commit? Resource decisions under uncertainty, sized to scenario, hedged where the cost of being wrong is structural.

SteerWhat do we adjust? Continuous correction as scenarios converge or collapse.

Read the full discipline →

Five Principles
  1. 01Continuous beats episodic
  2. 02Decisions, not decks
  3. 03Range, not point
  4. 04Judgment over machine
  5. 05Reversibility is currency
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Long-form essays on the discipline. Roughly weekly. Reply anytime.