How fast is the ground moving?
A monthly composite gauge of how quickly the operating environment is changing — and therefore how fast an annual plan goes stale. A directional read, not a forecast.
The reading.
Elevated. The market is genuinely split on the Fed's direction, the yield curve is transitioning, and consumer sentiment has dislocated from the hard data — the kind of configuration where an annual plan drafted in November is already wrong by April.
Five reads, equal-weighted.
A market split on whether the next move is up or down is an unstable rate regime — the cost of capital assumption under every plan is in play.
The curve normalizing after inversion is a classic late-cycle regime change — historically a watch-signal, not an all-clear.
When soft data reads recessionary while hard data holds, futures split — the widest scenario dispersion sits here, and it's where plans break.
Credit conditions are accommodative, not stressed — the one axis pulling the Index down this month. What isn't flashing is information too.
Genuine disagreement in liquid markets is a direct read on how uncertain the near future is — and a checkable one.
The bands.
The environment moves at the speed of the annual cycle. A yearly plan largely holds.
Conditions shift mid-year. The annual plan goes stale before it's executed; quarterly reforecasts can't keep up.
The environment resets inside a quarter. An annual plan is obsolete on arrival — only a continuous discipline keeps pace.
Methodology. Each of five components is scored 0–100 against its historical range; the Index is their equal-weighted average. It measures the velocity of change in the operating environment — not a market or recession call. Sources: macro data via FRED (Federal Reserve); market-implied probabilities via public prediction markets (Kalshi · Polymarket · Manifold). Updated monthly, alongside The Signal Layer.
The Predictive Planning Index, July 2026: 60/100 (Elevated). Predictive Planning Institute. predictiveplanning.com/predictive-planning-index.