Retail Sales
Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services
The number, plainly.
Monthly sales at U.S. retail stores and restaurants, in nominal dollars.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
Rising means consumers are spending; but it is nominal, so some of any rise is just prices. Flat sales in a year of inflation means real volume fell.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: the consumer-demand line, in the same nominal terms most revenue plans are written in.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | $745.0B | +0.8% |
| Aug 1, 2026 | $739.3B | +1.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | $729.9B | −0.4% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | $732.9B | +0.2% |
| May 1, 2026 | $731.4B | +1.0% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | $723.9B | +0.6% |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $719.7B | +1.7% |
| Feb 1, 2026 | $708.0B | +0.9% |
| Jan 1, 2026 | $701.9B | −0.6% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | $706.3B | +0.1% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | $705.5B | +0.7% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | $700.8B | Unchanged |
| Sep 1, 2025 | $700.9B | +0.1% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $700.4B | +0.3% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | $698.3B | +0.9% |
| Jun 1, 2025 | $691.9B | +0.9% |
| May 1, 2025 | $685.5B | −1.4% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | $695.5B | +0.1% |
| Mar 1, 2025 | $694.8B | +1.6% |
| Feb 1, 2025 | $683.8B | −0.5% |
| Jan 1, 2025 | $687.1B | −0.7% |
| Dec 1, 2024 | $691.8B | +0.9% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | $685.7B | +0.6% |
| Oct 1, 2024 | $681.8B | +0.9% |
| Sep 1, 2024 | $676.0B | +0.8% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $670.7B | −0.4% |
| Jul 1, 2024 | $673.7B | +1.1% |
| Jun 1, 2024 | $666.0B | −0.2% |
| May 1, 2024 | $667.7B | +0.4% |
| Apr 1, 2024 | $664.9B | +0.1% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | $664.3B | Unchanged |
| Feb 1, 2024 | $664.6B | +0.6% |
| Jan 1, 2024 | $660.6B | −1.0% |
| Dec 1, 2023 | $667.0B | +0.1% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | $666.4B | −0.2% |
| Oct 1, 2023 | $667.8B | — |
When Retail Sales moves, know what it tests.
The monthly Signal Layer covers every series in the library: what moved, which planning assumptions it tests, and what a continuous-planning team does about it. One email a month. Unsubscribe in one click.
Where the number comes from.
Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (RSAFS), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAFS. Refreshed daily; 120 readings on file from Oct 1, 2016 to Sep 1, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: Retail Sales (RSAFS). predictiveplanning.com/signals/RSAFS. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value $745.0B as of Sep 1, 2026.