Average Hourly Earnings
Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private
The number, plainly.
What the average private-sector employee earns per hour, from the monthly payroll survey.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
Rising faster than prices means real wages are growing and labor costs with them; rising slower means households are losing ground.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: the merit-increase and labor-cost lines, and the consumer-spending assumption that depends on them.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | $38.00 | +0.4% |
| Sep 1, 2026 | $37.86 | +0.3% |
| Aug 1, 2026 | $37.76 | +0.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | $37.64 | +0.1% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | $37.59 | +0.3% |
| May 1, 2026 | $37.49 | +0.2% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | $37.41 | +0.2% |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $37.35 | +0.2% |
| Feb 1, 2026 | $37.27 | +0.3% |
| Jan 1, 2026 | $37.15 | +0.4% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | $37.02 | +0.1% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | $37.00 | +0.4% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | $36.85 | +0.4% |
| Sep 1, 2025 | $36.70 | +0.2% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $36.62 | +0.4% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | $36.47 | +0.3% |
| Jun 1, 2025 | $36.36 | +0.2% |
| May 1, 2025 | $36.28 | +0.4% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | $36.12 | Unchanged |
| Mar 1, 2025 | $36.11 | +0.5% |
| Feb 1, 2025 | $35.94 | +0.3% |
| Jan 1, 2025 | $35.84 | +0.4% |
| Dec 1, 2024 | $35.69 | +0.3% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | $35.60 | +0.4% |
| Oct 1, 2024 | $35.46 | +0.3% |
| Sep 1, 2024 | $35.34 | +0.3% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $35.22 | +0.4% |
| Jul 1, 2024 | $35.08 | +0.2% |
| Jun 1, 2024 | $35.01 | +0.3% |
| May 1, 2024 | $34.89 | +0.4% |
| Apr 1, 2024 | $34.76 | +0.3% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | $34.65 | +0.4% |
| Feb 1, 2024 | $34.52 | +0.1% |
| Jan 1, 2024 | $34.47 | +0.5% |
| Dec 1, 2023 | $34.29 | +0.4% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | $34.17 | — |
When Average Hourly Earnings moves, know what it tests.
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Where the number comes from.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private (CES0500000003), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003. Refreshed daily; 120 readings on file from Nov 1, 2016 to Oct 1, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: Average Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003). predictiveplanning.com/signals/CES0500000003. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value $38.00 as of Oct 1, 2026.