Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
The number, plainly.
The share of the labor force that is out of work and looking, from the monthly household survey.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
Rising means slack is building and demand is softening; falling means the market is tight and hiring is expensive.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: the wage-growth line and the demand forecast, which both lean on the same labor picture.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | 4.10% | −10 bp |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 4.20% | +10 bp |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 4.10% | Unchanged |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 4.10% | −10 bp |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 4.20% | −10 bp |
| May 1, 2026 | 4.30% | Unchanged |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 4.30% | Unchanged |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 4.30% | −10 bp |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 4.40% | +10 bp |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 4.30% | −10 bp |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 4.40% | −10 bp |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 4.50% | +10 bp |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 4.40% | +10 bp |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 4.30% | Unchanged |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 4.30% | +20 bp |
| Jun 1, 2025 | 4.10% | −20 bp |
| May 1, 2025 | 4.30% | +10 bp |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 4.20% | Unchanged |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 4.20% | Unchanged |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 4.20% | +20 bp |
| Jan 1, 2025 | 4.00% | −10 bp |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 4.10% | −10 bp |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 4.20% | +10 bp |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 4.10% | Unchanged |
| Sep 1, 2024 | 4.10% | −10 bp |
| Aug 1, 2024 | 4.20% | Unchanged |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 4.20% | +10 bp |
| Jun 1, 2024 | 4.10% | +20 bp |
| May 1, 2024 | 3.90% | Unchanged |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3.90% | Unchanged |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 3.90% | Unchanged |
| Feb 1, 2024 | 3.90% | +20 bp |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 3.70% | −10 bp |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3.80% | +10 bp |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3.70% | −20 bp |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 3.90% | — |
When Unemployment Rate moves, know what it tests.
The monthly Signal Layer covers every series in the library: what moved, which planning assumptions it tests, and what a continuous-planning team does about it. One email a month. Unsubscribe in one click.
Where the number comes from.
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE. Refreshed daily; 119 readings on file from Nov 1, 2016 to Oct 1, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: Unemployment Rate (UNRATE). predictiveplanning.com/signals/UNRATE. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value 4.10% as of Oct 1, 2026.