Real GDP Growth
Real Gross Domestic Product
The number, plainly.
The annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate of real U.S. GDP, the headline growth number.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
Positive means the economy grew that quarter; two negative quarters is the rule-of-thumb recession. It arrives a month after the quarter ends and gets revised twice.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: the macro-growth assumption the whole revenue plan is scaled against.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.40% | +120 bp |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 2.20% | −30 bp |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2.50% | +230 bp |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 0.20% | −370 bp |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 3.90% | −10 bp |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 4.00% | +390 bp |
| Jan 1, 2025 | 0.10% | −230 bp |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2.40% | −80 bp |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 3.20% | −40 bp |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3.60% | +220 bp |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 1.40% | −220 bp |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 3.60% | −90 bp |
| Jul 1, 2023 | 4.50% | +230 bp |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2.20% | −120 bp |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3.40% | +70 bp |
| Oct 1, 2022 | 2.70% | Unchanged |
| Jul 1, 2022 | 2.70% | +210 bp |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 0.60% | +160 bp |
| Jan 1, 2022 | −1.00% | −780 bp |
| Oct 1, 2021 | 6.80% | +360 bp |
| Jul 1, 2021 | 3.20% | −390 bp |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 7.10% | +90 bp |
| Jan 1, 2021 | 6.20% | +160 bp |
| Oct 1, 2020 | 4.60% | −3030 bp |
| Jul 1, 2020 | 34.90% | +6290 bp |
| Apr 1, 2020 | −28.00% | −2280 bp |
| Jan 1, 2020 | −5.20% | −800 bp |
| Oct 1, 2019 | 2.80% | −200 bp |
| Jul 1, 2019 | 4.80% | +140 bp |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 3.40% | +90 bp |
| Jan 1, 2019 | 2.50% | +190 bp |
| Oct 1, 2018 | 0.60% | −190 bp |
| Jul 1, 2018 | 2.50% | +40 bp |
| Apr 1, 2018 | 2.10% | −120 bp |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 3.30% | −130 bp |
| Oct 1, 2017 | 4.60% | — |
When Real GDP Growth moves, know what it tests.
The monthly Signal Layer covers every series in the library: what moved, which planning assumptions it tests, and what a continuous-planning team does about it. One email a month. Unsubscribe in one click.
Where the number comes from.
Real Gross Domestic Product (A191RL1Q225SBEA), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA. Refreshed daily; 120 readings on file from Oct 1, 1996 to Jul 1, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: Real GDP Growth (A191RL1Q225SBEA). predictiveplanning.com/signals/A191RL1Q225SBEA. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value 3.40% as of Jul 1, 2026.