What a Scan surfaces this month.
The Signal Layer is the Institute's monthly read of what a disciplined Scan surfaces — a small set of macro and market signals, and how the discipline reads them. It is not a forecast. This issue lands in the last three weeks of planning season, when most 2027 plans are being approved. The question it asks is narrow: which of the assumptions those plans were built on in September have the signals already moved?
The hard and soft data.
Raised from 3.75% on September 17. The July issue read a market leaning hawkish; the hike arrived. A Scan treats a resolved signal as a lesson in calibration, not a victory lap: the crowd priced it before most annual plans did.
Still positive, but down from +0.38% on November 5 as the short end prices more tightening. A flattening curve with hikes in view is the configuration where the cost-of-capital line in a 2027 plan deserves a second look.
Off its October 15 high of 7.40%, but up from 6.71% on September 3. Down from the peak and up from the start of the season, both at once. Which one a plan cites depends on the date it was written. That's the whole problem with a dated plan.
Down from 55.2 in July. Soft data is falling again while the hard data below holds. The split the July issue named hasn't resolved; it has widened.
Up from $335.8B in June. Businesses keep ordering while consumers report feeling worse. A Story phase doesn't pick a side in that contradiction. It writes a scenario for each.
Steady in a 4.1–4.2% band since July, with payrolls up about 165,000 in October. Initial jobless claims were 189,000 in the week of October 31. The labor layer is quiet, and a disciplined Scan records quiet as carefully as noise.
Still looser than average, but tighter every week since October 9, when it read −0.487. The level says credit isn't binding. The direction is the part to watch.
Spiked to 28.18 on November 5 and fell back below 20 within two trading days. A plan that assumed a calm year would have missed the spike entirely, and a quarterly review would have missed the reversal too.
What the crowd is pricing.
Kalshi prices a 25 bp hike at about 86% and a larger one at about 11%; a hold is about 4%. The direction is no longer the open question. The size is.
Against about 45% for a hold. This is the genuine split, and it sits right where most 2027 plans start. A Stake phase sizes commitments that are hard to reverse against both branches, not the midpoint.
Market-implied probabilities via public prediction markets (Kalshi · Polymarket · Manifold).
Signals split into scenarios.
The read this month: the Fed has resumed tightening, the market is nearly certain of a December hike and split on January, the curve is flattening, financial conditions are tightening at the margin, and consumer sentiment keeps falling while orders and hiring hold. In July the open question was which direction rates would go. That question has an answer now, and most plans approved this month were drafted before the answer arrived. A Scan doesn't tell you what happens in 2027. It tells you which assumptions in the plan you're approving have already been overtaken.
This is the Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop, in the open. Where does your organization stand on the full discipline? Take the Maturity Read.
Predictive Planning Institute, The Signal Layer — November 2026. predictiveplanning.com/signal-report/2026-11. Macro data via FRED (Federal Reserve); market-implied probabilities via public prediction markets. Values as of the dates shown.
Every issue.
The Signal Layer is published monthly. Each issue keeps the values as of its publication date, so the record of what the Scan surfaced stays citable.
- The Signal Layer — November 20262026-11-11 · this issue