How fast is the ground moving?
A monthly composite gauge of how quickly the operating environment is changing — and therefore how fast an annual plan goes stale. A directional read, not a forecast.
The reading.
Elevated, and up one point from July's 60. The rate question changed shape: in July the market was split on direction; now the Fed has hiked, a December hike is priced near-certain, and January is the split. Sentiment and hard data have pulled further apart. An annual plan approved this month was mostly drafted before any of that was settled.
Five reads, equal-weighted.
A tightening cycle that has restarted, with the next step priced and the one after it a coin flip, puts the cost-of-capital assumption under every 2027 plan in play. Up from 62.
Still positive, so less of a regime break than July's un-inversion, but flattening fast as the front end prices hikes. Down from 66.
The split between how people feel and what businesses order has widened since July. It remains the component where scenarios disperse most. Down from 78 only because sentiment is no longer at July's extreme.
Credit is still looser than average and still not the binding constraint. The drift toward tighter is why this rises from 34.
A volatility spike that reverses inside a week, plus a genuine split on the next rate decision, reads as real near-term uncertainty, priced and checkable. Roughly flat from 60.
The bands.
The environment moves at the speed of the annual cycle. A yearly plan largely holds.
Conditions shift mid-year. The annual plan goes stale before it's executed; quarterly reforecasts can't keep up.
The environment resets inside a quarter. An annual plan is obsolete on arrival — only a continuous discipline keeps pace.
Methodology. Each of five components is scored 0–100 against its historical range; the Index is their equal-weighted average. It measures the velocity of change in the operating environment — not a market or recession call. Sources: macro data via FRED (Federal Reserve); market-implied probabilities via public prediction markets (Kalshi · Polymarket · Manifold). Updated monthly, alongside The Signal Layer.
The Predictive Planning Index, November 2026: 61/100 (Elevated). Predictive Planning Institute. predictiveplanning.com/predictive-planning-index/2026-11.
Every reading.
The Index is published monthly. Each issue keeps the components and values as of its publication date.
- November 2026 — 61/100 (Elevated)2026-11-11 · this issue