The 3m10y Curve
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
The number, plainly.
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 3-month bill, the slope the New York Fed's recession model is built on.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
Deeply negative means short money costs more than long money, which banks and the Fed's own model read as a warning. Positive is the normal shape.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: the growth assumption under the revenue line, and whether the plan has a recession case at all.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 | 0.68% | +4 bp |
| Nov 9, 2026 | 0.64% | −3 bp |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 0.67% | Unchanged |
| Nov 5, 2026 | 0.67% | −2 bp |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 0.69% | −5 bp |
| Nov 3, 2026 | 0.74% | +4 bp |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 0.70% | −8 bp |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 0.78% | −2 bp |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 0.80% | −7 bp |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 0.87% | +10 bp |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 0.77% | −1 bp |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 0.78% | Unchanged |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 0.78% | +4 bp |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 0.74% | −14 bp |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 0.88% | +2 bp |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 0.86% | −2 bp |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0.88% | +5 bp |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 0.83% | +1 bp |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 0.82% | −9 bp |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 0.91% | −4 bp |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 0.95% | −4 bp |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 0.99% | Unchanged |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 0.99% | −7 bp |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 1.06% | Unchanged |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 1.06% | −3 bp |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 1.09% | Unchanged |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 1.09% | +2 bp |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 1.07% | −2 bp |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 1.09% | +8 bp |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1.01% | +5 bp |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 0.96% | +3 bp |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 0.93% | −1 bp |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 0.94% | +2 bp |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 0.92% | +12 bp |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 0.80% | +1 bp |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 0.79% | — |
When The 3m10y Curve moves, know what it tests.
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Where the number comes from.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M. Refreshed daily; 116 readings on file from May 27, 2026 to Nov 10, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: The 3m10y Curve (T10Y3M). predictiveplanning.com/signals/T10Y3M. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value 0.68% as of Nov 10, 2026.