The 2s10s Curve
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
The number, plainly.
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year, the classic yield-curve slope.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
Negative (inverted) has historically preceded recessions; a move back toward positive can signal the market re-pricing the path of rates and growth.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: your view of where rates and growth go next.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 | 0.25% | −7 bp |
| Nov 9, 2026 | 0.32% | −3 bp |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 0.35% | −3 bp |
| Nov 5, 2026 | 0.38% | +6 bp |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 0.32% | −2 bp |
| Nov 3, 2026 | 0.34% | +2 bp |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 0.32% | −6 bp |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 0.38% | +1 bp |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 0.37% | −1 bp |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 0.38% | +9 bp |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 0.29% | −3 bp |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 0.32% | +1 bp |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 0.31% | Unchanged |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 0.31% | −1 bp |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 0.32% | −1 bp |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 0.33% | −5 bp |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0.38% | +3 bp |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 0.35% | +2 bp |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 0.33% | −4 bp |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 0.37% | −5 bp |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 0.42% | −2 bp |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 0.44% | −3 bp |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 0.47% | −4 bp |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 0.51% | +3 bp |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 0.48% | +1 bp |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 0.47% | +2 bp |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 0.45% | −1 bp |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 0.46% | +5 bp |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 0.41% | +4 bp |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 0.37% | +5 bp |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 0.32% | −4 bp |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 0.36% | +5 bp |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 0.31% | +5 bp |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 0.26% | +1 bp |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 0.25% | +5 bp |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 0.20% | — |
When The 2s10s Curve moves, know what it tests.
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Where the number comes from.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y. Refreshed daily; 116 readings on file from May 27, 2026 to Nov 10, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: The 2s10s Curve (T10Y2Y). predictiveplanning.com/signals/T10Y2Y. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value 0.25% as of Nov 10, 2026.