S&P 500

The index of 500 large U.S. companies, the default scoreboard for American equities.

Rising means investors are paying more for future earnings; falling means they are not. It moves on expectations, so it leads the economy more often than it follows.

A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.

Tests: the equity-funded part of the capital plan, the 401(k) line in consumer confidence, and the exit assumptions of anyone planning a sale.

Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.