The High-Yield Spread
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread
The number, plainly.
The extra yield over Treasuries on the whole U.S. junk-bond index, the market's price for lending to leveraged companies.
Higher, lower, and what each means.
Tight means lenders are relaxed and money is easy; a sharp widening means they are pulling back, usually fast.
A reading is not a verdict. The Scan phase of Woodring’s Loop collects the signal; the Story phase asks what futures it is consistent with, and only the Stake phase turns that into a decision. This page does the first part.
The line in your 2027 plan.
Tests: the assumption that credit stays available to your customers, suppliers and acquirers on current terms.
Write the assumption down, name the reading that would break it, and put a date on when it has to be argued again. That is the 18-Month Sunset applied to one line of a budget. The Last Annual Planshows what this season’s moves have already done to the common ones.
The last 36 readings.
Most recent first. Every value is as published by FRED at the time of the last refresh; FRED revises some series after the fact.
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | 3.34% | −8 bp |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 3.42% | −6 bp |
| Nov 5, 2026 | 3.48% | +16 bp |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 3.32% | −8 bp |
| Nov 3, 2026 | 3.40% | −3 bp |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 3.43% | −1 bp |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 3.44% | +18 bp |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 3.26% | +12 bp |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 3.14% | −4 bp |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 3.18% | −12 bp |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 3.30% | −8 bp |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.38% | −2 bp |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3.40% | +13 bp |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3.27% | −6 bp |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.33% | +4 bp |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.29% | −2 bp |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.31% | +8 bp |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.23% | −2 bp |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3.25% | +9 bp |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 3.16% | +5 bp |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 3.11% | Unchanged |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 3.11% | −4 bp |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 3.15% | +6 bp |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3.09% | +6 bp |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3.03% | −9 bp |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 3.12% | +2 bp |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 3.10% | −14 bp |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 3.24% | +12 bp |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 3.12% | +4 bp |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3.08% | +6 bp |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 3.02% | +9 bp |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 2.93% | +13 bp |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 2.80% | +7 bp |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 2.73% | +5 bp |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2.68% | +2 bp |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 2.66% | — |
When The High-Yield Spread moves, know what it tests.
The monthly Signal Layer covers every series in the library: what moved, which planning assumptions it tests, and what a continuous-planning team does about it. One email a month. Unsubscribe in one click.
Where the number comes from.
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2. Refreshed daily; 120 readings on file from May 27, 2026 to Nov 9, 2026.
Predictive Planning Institute, Signal Library: The High-Yield Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2). predictiveplanning.com/signals/BAMLH0A0HYM2. Data via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Value 3.34% as of Nov 9, 2026.